Monday, September 22, 2014

AEONCR 半年业绩分析


星期4 AEONCR 出了最新一季的季报,也宣布了将派发27.4sen的股息,而隔天(星期五)他的股价却应声下挫了3%++,他的业绩是真的这么烂吗?今天我就要好好研究下,到底他的业绩是烂呢,还是另一个投资机会?首先我们先看一看下面这个




这个是最新业绩

或许大家会说,横看竖看都是增长中嘛,72SEN半年,那么一年就=大概144SEN了嘛,对比他的股价,才11倍PE,还好啊?问题出在哪里?
老实说,如果单单看这一季的季报表面,我们是看不出异端的,不过我们再看看上一期季报,再来研究。。

上一季季报

对比看了看,相信大家都发现了,Revenue是增加了?但是profit却下跌,到底是什么回事?

这个是他的详细季报

我们看到其实total Operating Expenses那边,居然大涨了不少,这个要留意,因为比例是不容忽视。当我详细的看了他的资料,我发现他的支出其实问题不大,唯一要留意的就是贷款拨备大大的增加了,我留意到这个几乎是目前所有银行的通病,所以或许也能够表示,市场的风险开始走高,分分钟泡沫破裂,导致另一个金融风暴来袭哦,不得不防。还有一点值得留意的就是,他的账面估值也是全行最高的,高达3.3左右,这可以比喻成她资产很少,或者也可以比喻成,他用一点点钱就能够收取高额的回酬,类似大耳聋那样,所以这个是可以接受范围。然后我们也看到他从个人贷款领域,转型成比较倾向汽车和电单车贷款,而且生意额也大幅度的增加,电单车领域是双位数成长(38%++),汽车领域由于比较新,所以是三位数增加哦(134%++)。不过·有一点值得留意的是,Gross NPL越来越高,这就是上面说到的呆账问题,或许也是另一个金融风暴的征兆,不得不防,因为呆账对银行业来说,不是开玩笑的,而且他也还不属于正统的银行,所以更糟糕。。

基于目前也会把大部分心思,投放在我即将出版的新书,所以就不写那么长了,如果要认真研究,其实他也能够从之前的AEONBIG收购了CAREFOUR,还有AEON不断发展的业务而受惠,不过基于目前我认为市场风险越来越高,所以不敢把利好太放大,导致有人因为我的分析而有所损失。所以分析个股之余,还要研究市场风险,不能盲目的从个股研究中,就认为这个是投资机会还是怎样,因为用什么风险来换取什么回酬,是决定在我们的手里。。好了废话少说,以下是我个人的投资功课。。

我其他的个人功课 个股分析 

AEONCR(5139) Sep 2014(Last Update)
今天价格:rm15.98
投资建议:守着
合理价: Rm15.7(PE10.5+全年股息大概40SEN)
买卖建议:高回酬高风险,现在市场风险很高,虽然管理层管理妥当。如果股价下调到14左右,可以考虑买少少,不然还是建议守着就好,毕竟已经到价了。
投资时限:长期投资,每年股息加增长约20%年复利




14 comments:

  1. Hi SKY, Gross NPL 在哪里能够看得到呢?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 请参考BURSA最新季报的第九页:)

      Delete
  2. 第一天的英文名字叫sky,我笑了^^

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 我的儿子就是叫SKY了XD,不过都被我们叫成LOT 10。。

      Delete
  3. Despite lacklustre net profit growth of 10%, its revenue still grows impressively at 28%. This shows that its business expansion is still very much intact, not affected by Bank Negara credit tightening. So what actually caused its profit growth to slump from 31% to just 10% ? In fact, it is due to a big provision of Rm28mil for impairment loss :-an amount set aside to standby for borrowers defaulting loan as required by accounting laws even though the borrowers have not actually defaulted the loans yet.

    The provision for impairment loss under the latest accounting standard FRS 130 is something like this : If a borrower forgets to pay 1 monthly instalment, it is deemed that he has defaulted 25% of the loan, so the accounting law requires that provision be made for 25% of that loan. If the borrower fails to pay 2 instalments consecutively, then provision must go up to 50%. If the borrows fails to pay 3 instalments consecutively(aka 90days delinquency), it is deemed that that borrower has defaulted 100% on the loan, so provision must go up to 100%. Of course, if borrower resume paying instalment, there will be "write-back" in the following quarter. Provision or "write-off" will decrease the net profit of that particular quarter, whereas "write-back" will increase the net profit. I like such conservative accounting because it is based on actual occurrence (borrower defaults on paying loan instalment) and all these figures are very real. Of course, the accountants and auditors will have to do more works, but their additional works benefit us (the shareholders) tremendously.

    The deterioration of loan quality was also picked up by its gross impaired loan ratio increased from 2.18% to 2.65%. Not to worry, 2.65% is still very healthy! By comparison, CIMB is at 3.2%.

    Full confidence shall be given in Aeon Credit's prudent credit control. The current big provision would be a one-time event and would not be repeated in the future. Trust Aeon Credit as it has 100 years of successful credit management experience in Japan !

    Accompanying this profit announcement, Aeon Credit has also declared a commendable mid-year dividend of Rm0.274/share. If we annualise it , the full year dividend will be Rm0.55/share, giving a yield of 3.3%.

    Be wiseful when you sell.

    http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/5139.jsp

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 天哥,我覺得這個分析可參考。。。所以轉載過來...

      Delete
    2. 哦哦,真的蛮有参考价值,谢谢啦:)
      有一点值得深思的是,这个笔者信心十足,有点冲劲,但是当过分乐观的话,就很容易烧到了,这一点真的需要确切的留意。。

      Delete
  4. 說的好!我也是如此覺得。所以,會提醒自己只是參考,也要自己思考。:)

    ReplyDelete
  5. 什么是账面估值?Net book value?

    ReplyDelete
  6. hi 第一天,

    i saw ur 1 sentence said that "贷款拨备大大的增加了".

    "贷款拨备"=loan provision , rite? may i know normally where to find it in financial statement? because i unable find it in income statement? or in cash flow statement, "Allowance for impairment losses "?

    sorry disturb you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 贷款拨备应该是指Allowance for impairment losses。一般上都会在dinancial statement出现但是他没有,只在cash flow那边看到。。

      Delete
  7. 电单车领域是双位数成长(38%++),汽车领域由于比较新,所以是三位数增加哦(134%++)
    这在季报哪里看到的? 我找不到

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 哦哦,那么久了我也不记得了,肯定有的,你认真去找下看就有了:)

      Delete

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